Dear Readers,

"When it comes to the future," said the futurologist John M. Richardson Jr., "there are three kinds of people: those who let it happen, those who make it happen, and those who wonder what happened."

John Becherer is a believer in making it happen.

As chief executive officer of the United Soybean Board, the soybean-checkoff group, Becherer is coordinating an effort to define a "vision" of what the soybean industry will look like in 2020 if soybean growers and the agribusinesses they work with have their way.

It's a three-step process that starts with crystal-ball gazing: What will be the state of soybeans in 2020 if the industry does nothing? USB is working with ABG, a consulting group in Indiana, to run realistic scenarios.

Step two is what Becherer calls "the focal point." The aim is to "create a vision statement of what we want the future to look like."

Step three is agreeing on strategies to make it happen.

The future is a big subject, and so is the list of issues the vision will address. They include, Becherer said, the impact of society's changing energy needs on soybeans and how they'll be met, population and food-consumption trends, new food technologies, food-safety concerns, environmental concerns, the evolution of government policy and changes in the transportation system.

• What will 2020 look like for soybeans' largest customer, animal agriculture?
• What will 2020 look like for soybeans' competitors, the other oilseeds, especially palm oil?
• How will trends in South American and China affect supply-and-demand trends?
• If biodiesel begins consuming large quantities of soybean oil, what are the implications for U.S. exports? Will we be able to switch overseas customers to buying soybean meal from us instead of whole beans?
• What will be the economics for producers of competing uses of land, like corn, wheat and switchgrass?

"The reality is that soybeans are going to need to compete for acres," Becherer said. "They always have and will continue to in the future. That's part of the vision"

In an interview with DTN, Becherer emphasized that this is a soybean-industry vision, not a USB vision. USB is just the coordinator.

Becherer is working with an 18-member steering committee representing the equipment sector, seed sector, academia, government, soybean grower organizations state and national, grower organizations outside soybeans and the farm-credit sector. Monsanto, John Deere, the Farm Credit System and the National Oilseed Processors Association are providing financial support.

Becherer is hoping for input from individual growers, as well. "If you don't include everyone in the process, you aren't getting all the input you need," Becherer said. The vision project has a new website that includes information on how to contribute your thoughts. The url for it is www.soy2020vision.com.

Will the vision matter? Becherer clearly thinks so. The last time the industry got together to come up with a vision was 1994 and Becherer credits it with helping soybeans achieve their current level of profitability. Particularly important, he said, were changes in the way the industry marketed soybeans overseas that grew out of the vision.

"What we did was change from simply promoting soybeans to marketing U.S. soybeans," Becherer said. "That has allowed us to maintain and expand U.S. exports" even in the face of stiffened competition from Brazil.

Many economists are skeptical of anything that smacks of industrial policy and to some of them this attempt to define the future would qualify. The difference is the lack of government direction. This is the industry talking to itself, trying to get on the same page about the challenges the future could raise and how they might be met. "Without that vision you don't have a good means of making what you want to happen come true," Becherer said.

The aim is to finish the scenario planning in mid-November and to unveil the vision at the Commodity Classic convention in Tampa next March, Becherer said. From there it will be a matter of trying to make the future happen.

Sincerely,

Urban C. Lehner
Editor-in-Chief
DTN